This will be one of the only weeks that I will focus on the GOP and their field of candidates for president. In a relatively slow news week, the new GOP “hot topic,” Herman Cain, has been able to not only remain relevant, but move closer to the top. Which leads me to ask what is going on in the GOP and who will end up being the nominee? Let’s take a look at the still “relevant” candidates (In no particular order) :
First up is Rick Perry. Perry entered the race with a lot of enthusiasm and was seen as a “jobs creator” but his lack of elegance and restraint has gotten him into some hot water over the past few weeks. Many are now beginning to realize that the jobs he created were either with federal money or are low paying. They are also growing wise to the fact that his state is laughably out of touch and should not be seen as the model for the country.
That being said, if Perry can focus back on jobs and sell his plan he still has a shot, especially considering his immense popularity in the South. My guess: he will stay in until the end, maybe a third place, or if lucky a second place, finish.
Next is Herman Cain. Cain has been out selling his “9-9-9 Plan” and trying to simplify government. Although he is gaining popularity, one has to wonder how long Americans will be receptive towards such a simplistic policy. His “9-9-9 Plan” is being trashed by economists across the board and would impose a nine percent federal sales tax on every product, including here in “Sales Tax Free N.H.,” and would bring down an already low drive for consumption negatively affecting business.
Although he is “hot” right now, one has to wonder how long that will last. My guess, he will fade into the sunset and most likely won’t make it until next June.
Next up is “Golden Boy” Mitt Romney, who has been sitting atop the GOP field for three years and was the only one in the field seen as a “power player” in 2008. Let’s look at what made Mitt popular with the GOP in 2008: he had a health care bill that worked and would work at the federal level. He was a moderate voice in a field of reactionary politicians and finally he was appealing to independent voters.
Now let’s see what makes him unpopular with some in the GOP today: he had a health care bill that is eerily similar to an already unpopular plan. He is a moderate voice and seen as a “Non-Christian.” Although the latter two problems caused him issues in ’08, the health care bill was seen as a major selling point.
Now that an unpopular president has enacted that plan first, Mitt is forced to abandon ship. For Mitt, it depends on how well he is able to show he has “changed his ways,” something he has had to do often.
My prediction: Mitt will survive the fight and be the nominee, but that does not mean the voters will be happy about it.
Finally is Ron Paul. The “Ideologically Pure,” Conservative Hero who is immensely popular amongst independents and the extremes. Although Paul is mainly in the race to spur conversation about topics such as the Drug Wars and American Foreign Policy, he has done a great job doing it.
My prediction: Paul surprisingly wins N.H., which propels him to a second place finish and another run as an independent.
For the past thirty years the GOP has steadily moved to the right, dragging the Democrats and their two presidents with them. In order to win, the GOP must move to the middle if they want to remain relevant and appealing to independents.
This election could, and should, be one of the easiest races the GOP has had in a generation, yet it is as if they are on the one yard line down by one and they decide to throw a hail mary instead of simply kicking it through the uprights, straight down the middle.
By moving to the far right, they are testing the waters and seeing if the American people are welcoming to that message, which in my opinion is a huge mistake.
In the end, Romney should end up winning the nomination, but as I already pointed out, that does not mean the voters will be happy about it, especially the Christian conservatives. That leaves the door open for an independent run from Paul to garner five to 10 percent, and spell doom for any Republican contender next November. Whatever happens, it is sure to be a wild ride.
Jordan Posner can be contacted at jposner@ksc.mailcruiser.com