Sept. 10 will be the deciding moment in the New Hampshire Republican Gubernatorial Primary. Opponents Chuck Morse and Kelly Ayotte will be sparring for the nomination with two opposing approaches, Morse being the more right-wing, MAGA-adjacent candidate and Ayotte being a more traditional Republican.
Morse is hoping for a grassroots conservative turnout to pull out a win, though it is unlikely, as NHPR (New Hampshire Public Radio) reported that polls are showing Ayotte with a “commanding lead.”
It is an interesting outlier from the overall trend amongst recent Republican political tendencies. The prevailing strategy amongst Republican candidates and politicians, as Morse has done, is to double down and embolden the party base by leaning into Trumpian politics, leading to mild success in the primaries but becoming an utter flop in general elections because of the absolute apathy and distaste the general electorate have for the extreme conservatism.
This dichotomy between winning primary politics and winning general politics is something the Republican Party has been desperately grappling with. On the one hand, the MAGA base of the party has a significant enough stranglehold on the party to make candidates appease them in some meaningful way. Yet appeasing the MAGA base is a dangerous line to walk; if one is not careful you can either not go far enough and lose the primary for being a supposed RiNO (Republican in Name Only) or the candidate goes too far and becomes unelectable in a general election.
It appears the New Hampshire Republican electorate has learned from all of the previous failed elections from around the country. Choosing a candidate like Ayotte is going to be the best shot the party has at maintaining the governorship. Ayotte has received Governor Sununu’s endorsement and as mentioned before is doing well in polls. Ayotte has leaned into protecting abortion access as part of her moderate appeal. So, by all accounts, Morse should be polling better than he currently is considering his more conservative policy tendencies.
Morse is interested in restricting abortion access and voting accessibility, as would the base. According to NHPR, Rockingham County Commissioner Steve Goddu understands the successfulness of Sununu and Ayotte’s moderate policy positions, but his “preference is to have the most conservative governor that we can have.” With the sentiments Republican voters have shown recently and with county-level officials such as Goddu existing, I am surprised the polling is not closer and makes me suspicious of the accuracy of the polls as well.
Ayotte has a history of being a standard Republican and working to limit abortion access, so this change of tune may just be lip service to getting elected this fall. Politicians like Morse are significantly more popular with the base in usual circumstances. It will be interesting to see how this plays out on Sept. 10 in the primary election and see if New Hampshire’s Republican electorate has learned from those previous mistakes or if the party will continue their self-inflicted losing streak.
Timothy Fitzpatrick can be contacted at
tfitzpatrick@kscequinox.com
