The 2012 election is not only going to be an important one, but one that sets a standard for where Americans stand on the issues.
Are they willing to vote in a party who is willing to go to the extremes or a president who has been far too eager to compromise, in the end compromising his own position on the issues?
This is the hand that we have been dealt as the American voters and it will be interesting to see how it plays out. The GOP is pouncing on President Obama’s approval rating and trying to persuade former likely Democratic voters, Latinos, African Americans, and young people, who they suddenly see in play.
President Obama sits at close to 80 percent support in the African American community and thus are not any more “in play” than they have been over the years. Despite Herman Cain trying to court their support by calling 2/3 of them “brainwashed,” it does not seem likely that they will support a GOP contender this time around.
Latinos, despite a lukewarm feeling towards the President, face a tough choice. Vote for a party who blatantly says they don’t like you, or vote for a president who says he supports you but than deports record numbers (yet is still called soft on immigrants?). Latinos, especially those of a younger generation, have always, and probably will always, vote Democrat and thus the GOP has to play to the older, more conservative generations.
This will without a doubt be a tough sell as Alabama’s new immigration law appears to be falling flat on its face and Arizona’s is mired up in the courts. In my opinion, the only way the GOP gets a fraction of the Latino vote is to court a prominent VP, namely Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush, both of Florida and both with significant ties to the Latino community, however both of whom have voiced strong opposition to the idea of being the running mate.
This leaves one demographic left at play, the youth.
Young people have not always supported the Democratic candidate, they supported a Republican candidate as recently as 1988, and voted a virtual tie in the year 2000.
However, the 2008 election saw them vote Democratic by a two to one margin, ground that the GOP is going to have to make up. Although Obama’s support amongst young people has certainly dwindled significantly, they still face a tough challenge as the majority of young people tend to support Progressive issues, such as gay rights, something that the GOP is going to have combat.
Personally, I have seen my own support of the President dwindle and feel uneasy, at best, about supporting him this time around, not because he has been a “socialist” or “destroyed America(!)” but because he has not been progressive enough and has not acted on the will of the people who overwhelmingly supported his progressive message.
That being said, the idea of ANY of the other candidate winning sends shivers down my spine.
I don’t see a viable candidate or leader trying to defeat the President which leaves me with very little other option than to support the President.
Despite my own opinion of the President, he has the upper hand when it comes to young voters. That is thanks in part to the fact that if there is one demographic that has benefited from the President’s time in office, it is certainly young people.
The health care law, or “Obamacare,” allows us to stay on our parents health care until we are in our mid-to-late twenties and allows us to earn an income before we have to purchase insurance. This is a relief for young people across the country.
Last week, the President instituted sweeping college loan and debt reforms. He issued an executive, meaning he did it without Congress, to lower the interest rate on college loans to half a percent, as well as ensuring that no young person will never be forced pay more than 10 percent of what they make a month towards their loan debt, compared to the formerly 15 percent rate, which was already lower than when the President first entered office. The most significant of the reforms, however, is that the executive order stipulates that the loans be forgiven after 20 years, which may seem like a long time to students but will certainly help them when they reach the middle of their careers.
These two changes significantly benefit young voters and the President and his re-election team will be pushing hard to ensure that this message gets to young people and is understood loud and clear.
In the end the GOP is going to face an uphill battle in courting these three key demographics and their only hope may be that they stay home.
Jordan Posner can be contacted at jposner@ksc.mailcruiser.com