As the Republican field tightens up with roughly fifteen weeks until the official primary season kicks into full gear, N.J. Gov. Chris Christie announced Tuesday, Oct. 4 that he will definitely not be running during the 2012 election.
To those on the outside, this seems like a “So what?” announcement, but for Republicans, many of whom are not happy with the current field, this is a long-awaited announcement that signals that they’re stuck with what they’ve got.
Christie toyed with the idea of running much earlier in the race, while other canddidates were announcing. Ultimately, he said no and decided to focus on leading N.J., where he is in the middle of serving his four-year term.
But following the disappointing candidacy of Governor Rick Perry of Texas, the lack of new candidates in the field, and urgent requests by many for Christie to run, he promised to reconsider what he previously had called his final answer.
With Christie definitely out, it looks as though the field is locked in. Surely former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin has yet to make a formal decision either way (though she’s widely joked about as starting her 2016 campaign) and businessman Donald Trump mentions re-entering the race once in a while. But in the end, there are no serious candidates still to be drafted.
So the big question becomes, what does this mean for the fate of the Republican Party in 2012?
Well, it’s hard to say.
Perry’s disappointed voters who were looking for a more conservative alternative to M.A. Governor Mitt Romney. His candidacy began with buzz, but he’s continued to drop in polls and has failed to secure many of the big donors he’d need in order to take the nomination.
Romney himself worries many, with his changed stances and completely revamped personality from the last time around.
Minnesotta Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, who won the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa, a key indicator of organization that is necessary to taking the nomination, continues to dwindle from her once Sarah Palin-esque stardom.
Even Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, who appeals to many independents and some Democrats, is too moderate and scares off the most conservative of Republican voters (and evidently the big donors too).
Christie’s candidacy would have bridged some of those gaps; he was well-liked by a variety of Republicans, and many Democrats who may not have agreed with him 100% admired his rigidity and what they perceived as the ability to get work done.
He likely would have gained support from some of the biggest donors in the Northeast which, paired with name recognition, would have propelled his candidacy forward and could have led him to the nomination, regardless of how late into the race it is.
With this close to the Republican race and the intentions for the 2012 cycle of nearly all potential candidates already laid out, Republican voters uncommitted to a campaign at this time are going to have to compromise what they call an “ideal” candidate and pledge their allegiance to someone else.
This sad but true fact is disheartening and is what will lose the general election for the Republican Party. This divide amongst voters and the inability to back a single, well-liked candidate will severely split the vote, which may prove costly.
Republicans are, and have been for a long time, calling the 2012 election cycle on the of the most important of our lives. After the 2012 mid-term sweep by the Republican Party, it’s clear that voters, both Republican and Democrat, across the nation are looking for the traditional economic policies of the Republican Party. Failure to nominate the Reagan-like candidate that traditionally defines the Republican Party will lose the general election.
With that, voters are required to make that candidate out of what they have.
How successful that will be will play out; it’s still too early to tell whether or not voters will band together and back a single candidate of whom they demand the sensible and realistic policies.
And although the field seems to be all but complete, voters still have a lot of work to do in narrowing down the field before nominating their candidate.
Allie Bedell can be contacted at abedell@keene-equinox.com