Russia’s actions in the Crimea peninsula of Ukraine have drawn the ire of the international community. President Barack Obama has accused Russia of violating international law and the U.S. has moved forward with economic sanctions, which Obama said are intended to, “impose a cost on Russia and those responsible for the situation in Crimea.”
Now the Crimean parliament has moved to have citizens vote on March 16 to determine if the region will join Russia or restore its 1992 constitution, under which it would remain a part of Ukraine. The vote has been characterized by Kiev, home of the new Ukrainian government, as unconstitutional and “totally illegitimate.”
But international conflicts are rarely black and white, and if leaders and citizens in the West do not consider every side of the Crimean crisis, then they are demonstrating the same closed-mindedness that they claim Russia is guilty of. In one of the most serious confrontations between Russia and the west since the Cold War, Russian President Vladimir Putin has clearly made false claims aimed at avoiding international blame (the most obvious and egregious of which is his assertion that the Russian military has not yet intervened in Crimea).
AP Photo / Vadim Ghirda:
On Monday, March 10, 2014, a man pastes a poster promoting the referendum in Crimea. The poster says, “Together with Russia! March 16 – Referendum!” in Simferopol, Ukraine. Sunday, March 16, 2014, a referendum was called to see if the region should split off and become a part of Russia.
Putin’s denials and his refusal to talk with Ukrainian Interim President Oleksander Turchinov make pushes for negotiation difficult. After talking with Putin on March 2, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Obama that the Russian president was living “in another world,” according to the New York Times. But as Western leaders and media alike condemn Putin’s aggressive actions, they ignore the completely understandable logic of those actions. The Ukraine was a vital part of the former Soviet Union, representing its manufacturing base and greatly contributing to its agricultural output.
Crimea specifically is of major strategic importance, with its Black Sea ports and a major Russian naval fleet operating on a lease in Sevastopol. With the majority of Crimeans ethnically Russian, Putin is making a calculated decision to take advantage of a vulnerable Ukrainian government and rein Crimea back in to Russia. A closer examination of the situation reveals just how little Russia has to lose.
The idea of the U.S. or any other European country committing troops to the situation is almost unthinkable, and Russia’s military is over seven times the size of Ukraine’s. Economic sanctions are a lot easier for the U.S. to impose than Europe, because Russia supplies about a third of the continent’s gas.
Russia has shut off gas lines in the name of political conflicts before, and that threat has European countries understandably hesitant to follow in the U.S.’s footsteps.
Add it all up, and this feels more like a chess match than a war. Of all the ways to view the situation, none seem to indicate Russia is going anywhere anytime soon.
This brings us back to the March 16 election. Because Russian occupation will likely continue, Western leaders should be making it clear that they will not honor the results of the election unless it is carefully monitored by United Nations officials. No amount of Russian troops or European aid can shake the sentiments of the Crimean population. The West’s goal for Crimea’s future should reflect the desires of the Crimean people.
Zach Winn can be contacted at zwinn@keene-equinox.com